Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia
RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog
By Reid Wilson
– Maryland and Washington are the two forgone conclusions today, or so everyone believes. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads the RCP Maryland Average by 22 points. No polls have come out of the District yet, but given that 56% of the population in Washington is black, a demographic Obama is consistently winning in the high 80s, he’s probably in pretty good shape here too.
– It is in Virginia that the Clinton camp thinks it has any kind of shot today, and given proportional delegate allocation, she might even pick up a few representatives to Denver. Though Obama has support from most of the state’s big-name Democrats, including all three Democratic members of Congress and Governor Tim Kaine, Clinton could do well in the state’s southern third, areas Senator Jim Webb carried in his win over George Allen in 2006. Her campaign has held events in cities like Roanoke and Manassas instead of Arlington and Alexandria. That shows her camp thinks they can do better in the emerging exurbs than in the already-Democratic suburbs.
– Watch Northern Virginia, an area where new residents are voting increasingly Democratic, become the key to the race. Obama enjoys a wide lead throughout the state, up by almost 18 points in the latest RCP Virginia Average. If he wins big, it will be because of margins in NoVA and Richmond, areas that have provided Democratic wins in recent Senate and governor’s races. To boost that lead, why not dangle the prospects of a Secretary or Vice President Kaine?
