Reality Check 1

Hillary Clinton is not only beating Obama in the latest Ohio polls-she’s crushing him. In late January, she led 42-19, and even after Super Tuesday and a few follow-up wins for Obama, the New York senator is still ahead by margins ranging from 14 to 21 percent.

Still, a storyline is emerging in the press that Obama will close that gap between now and March 4. For the most part, the case looks something like this: 1) Obama always trails early on and gains ground as he stumps (and organizes) in a particular state, 2) most of the polls that show Clinton leading (with the exception of Rasmussen, a sketchy one-day sample) were taken before Obama’s Potomac Primary wins, and if he captures Wisconsin his Buckeye State stats will surely surge and 3) Ohio’s demographics mirror either Wisconsin’s (where Obama is ahead) or Missouri’s (which he’s already won). Here’s Joe Klein of Time arguing the latter:

Ohio’s population is 84 percent white (the exact same as in Missouri), 11.8 percent black (11.3 percent in Missouri) and 2.3 percent Hispanic (2.8 percent in Missouri). The percentages of college graduates and the household-income distribution are nearly identical as well.

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